There's an awful lot of predictions for the world to end in 2012. I'm happy to admit my ignorance of the details of exactly how this is going to happen.
I must say I'm thinking that it's not the world that's going to end, but maybe our civilisation. I've read, and it seems entirely possible, that with our intricate network of interdependent utilities, industries, agriculture, finance and distribution, we're always just 4-7 days away from total chaos. Just take out one element, say electricity, and consider the consequences on everything else!
The natural disasters that have occurred over the last few years - tsunami, volcanic eruption, earthquake have only affected relatively minor areas.
The man made financial problems we're having could well descend into major loss of confidence in national governments' ability to repay loans. The UK public service unions will really have something to strike about if the government ends up without money to pay their wages. It always makes me wonder who's actually got the money that's being borrowed on such a massive scale.
Hang on a minute - my pension was due into my account last Friday and it's not there yet - is this the start?
So, consider the scenario - a major earthquake sparking off volcanic activity and tsunamis. The atmosphere fills with dust, grounding all airlines. Tsunamis destroy a fair percentage of port facilities as well coastal towns and cities. Electric storms generated in the volcanic dust clouds could take out all satellite communications and wreak havoc with national power grids. All this destruction reduces many governments ability to service their debts - assuming the bank systems can continue operation without the data transmission of the satellite and other networks.
Big question - how long does normal life continue. Would everyone altruistically continue working to provide water, electricity, food to the population without the certainty of being paid for their efforts, and without the certainty their pay can purchase what they need to live. How soon do people start panicking - hoarding food, abandoning their roles in society and maybe running for the hills with their families.
If, and it's a big if, the utilities cease working and food distribution grinds to a halt, what happens to the major population centres. Does law and order continue, with equitable sharing of limited resources. Could an orderly evacuation of the most densely populated areas be achieved - is there enough land to spread out people enough to enable them to survive without the infrastructure of supermarkets and big business? Would people be able to acquire the necessary skills fast enough? Can the infrastructure recover if there's a major calamity?
I must say on a global scale, the disasters that we've faced in recent history have not been cataclysmic for the human race, or even our western civilisation as a whole. There's no reason why much larger disasters can't be coped with in a similar fashion. It's only if something on at least a continental, or even global, scale happens that we're in real trouble. That sounds pretty callous considering the loss of life in any major natural disaster, but it's the survival of our civilisation, not every individual I'm considering here.
In the long term, there's a need to have a plan how to deal with these things. It probably won't happen in 2012, but there will be problems, large and small scale, natural and man made, within our life times. Maybe the ultimate plan B needs to allow for us being knocked back to the stone ages. I sure as hell don't have the practical know how to smelt iron.
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