Tuesday 9 August 2011

2012 - End of civilisation...

... as we know it.

Riots in London, international financial system breaking down.  Many major countries spending beyond their means.  Lack of political will in the west to maintain law and order, reform bureaucracy or rein in spending.

If the (legitimate?) killing of one drug dealer can serve as an excuse for the amount of rioting going on, are the Olympics going to provide another flashpoint.  I see the building of the Olympic arenas as an extravagance with little benefit for the man in the street.  How are the individuals who are rioting now going to view the privileged few with access to limos, special traffic lanes and the best seats for the Olympic events.  The stark contrast between the amounts spent on these events and the conditions in some inner city estates provides a lot of justification for envy and a feeling of unfairness.

The political systems of most western countries are coming under considerable pressure.  The electorate are so used to governments overspending and bribing them with their own money (plus borrowings) it has become nigh impossible to rein back the benefits and services the governments are providing 'on tick'.  Surely the most stupid voter can appreciate that there's a limit to national borrowing, and only so much 'family silver' that can be sold off to finance over spending.  The more anyone borrows, the more of their income is spent on unproductive interest payments.  In any case, where is this money coming from that's being borrowed.

While the finance markets are confident that repayments will be made, no problem.  Governments can just borrow even more to pay off the loans coming due.  Eventually the markets will get a bit worried that this can't go on forever, as is happening in Greece and several other countries.  This forces a re-examination of what's going on and a sudden shift in confidence can result in governments no longer being able to borrow.  Result - governments are forced print money (quantative easing or similar weasel phrases) and their currencies collapse with high inflation.  I think I need to spend my savings quick - which is probably what the governments want to stimulate the economy into growth ???

With more money going on 'social' spending, the necessary spending on infrastructure, policing and national defence get cut right back.  Potholes in the roads, a spread on minor anti social behaviour and the possibility this country won't be able to defend itself (Falklands?) don't seem to worry our ruling classes.  Unlimited immigration also doesn't seem to affect our MP's - the lack of social cohesion it causes is maybe too far down the social ladder to affect them.

Several factors seem to be coalescing for next year.  Throw in a major natural disaster in the US - earthquake or eruption of a volcanic caldera, and a flare up in the middle east cutting off oil supplies, and the collapse of western civilisation as we know it doesn't seem so far fetched.

Run for the hills!

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